LED revised forecast-2009: Russian GDP to decline by 0.2%, rather than previously expected growth to 2,4%

According to new estimates Ministry of Russian Federation, Russian GDP in 2009 decreased by 0.2%, instead of growth at 2.4% on the previous forecast, Interfax reports with reference to the source in one of the departments of finance and economic bloc.

Ministry of Economic Development has increased the forecast drop in 2009 to 5.7% versus 3.2% decline in the previous forecast. In addition, the new ministry forecast that investment in primary capital in 2009 will drop to 1.7% against the previously expected growth in 1,4%.

- Business in Russia and other developing countries await corporate defaults

The Ministry has also raised the outlook on unemployment 2009, from 7.4% to 7.5%. Reducing the average real wages this year will be 2.7%.

Exports dropped to 43%, imports - by 16%. This trade surplus is forecast to remain positive in 2009 in the amount of 24.1 billion dollars.

In 2008, economic growth in Russia amounted to 6%.

Recall MEDT revised macroeconomic forecast for 2009 based on average oil prices 41 dollars per barrel in 2009, the average annual rate 35.1 rubles to the dollar and inflation 13%.

As explained on Monday the head of the Ministry of Elvira Nabiullina, the current projections for the world economy "vary from zero to , but we propose to build on the pessimistic variant. In particular, the slowdown of world economy, according to the forecast, estimated at -0.3% while the U.S. economy will grow with the rate of -2.6%, while in the euro zone - -2.2%.

The tendency to revise forecasts of economists around the world increased in early January. Thus, according to new estimates, the decline of the U.S. economy on the basis of 2009 could reach more than 2%. Many of the developing countries, perhaps, except China, are also threatened by the negative indicators. According to RBC daily Lead Economist Oxford Economics Rhine Newton-Smith, China's GDP growth will fall to 5.6%, Brazil - up to 0,8%, while Russia will take in at minus 0.8%.

In late January, lowering the assessment of macro-economic outlook for the current year is going and the International Monetary Fund. The head of the IMF Dominique Strauss-Kahn noted that the indicators could fall by at least half or a full percentage point.